Date : June 19, 2025
Chart Analysis Author : Youngjae Cho
Sources from TradingView, BTC/USD Index
Bitcoin Multi-Time Frame Technical Chart Analysis Update (Daily to Monthly)
Since our May 26th daily and weekly chart updated (Technical Analysis - Macro Assets 2), the focus has shifted to the monthly timeframe, where a potential long legged doji pattern is emerging. This raises an important question: has the downside move concluded, or are we entering a prolonged phase of uncertainty?
1. Monthly Chart Overview
From May 25th onward, Bitcoin has been consolidating between $99,000 and $112,000 in a narrow range. This signal indecision at a major macro level. A confirmed breakout or breakdown from this zone would be likely determined the direction until July.
2. Daily Chart Pattern : Symmetrical Triangle
From May 25th to June 19th, a symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart. While this pattern often precedes a breakout, the current structure is particularly sensitive to short-term sentiment. The price is currently hovering near $102,618, and investors might be considered long positions within the $102,600 ~ $103,450 range with a stop/loss set just below $103,454. (Caution : it is depending on the exchange specific price action)
This triangle pattern also shows a C-D-E leg progression with double-bottom structure. You can see the double bottom at the yellow circle above, but it is statistically less likely that Bitcoin price will immediately break through its previous high from this structure alone.
3. Probable Scenarios Going Forward: A, B, and C
Scenario A - Neutral Consolidation:
• The price remains within the symmetrical triangle and is continuing sideways price action through June and July. (as shown in Figure 2 above)
• A breakout may only come in late Q3, 2025, with multiple retests of upper triangle resistance.
Scenario B - Descending Triangle / Bearish Retest:
• A bearish descending triangle pattern is appeared for a retest of the previous lows in the range from $98,000 to $99,000.
• After this retest, a bullish breakout could emerge to retest or attempt to surpass the previous high price.
Scenario C - Zigzag Correction from $110,392:
• A corrective zigzag (a-b-c) pattern emerges from the recent high price of $110,392 which would be built a new local low within $96,000 ~ $99,000.
• This structure would likely serve as a foundation for a larger upward move, though the previous top may not be breached immediately.
4. Medium-Term Outlook
Even if a W-shaped recovery develops from the current double-bottom structure, the price action is likely to remain confined within the broader triangle. The expect is continued consolidation and noise into July, 2025, with a major breakout window potentially forming only in Q3, 2025.
5. Altcoin Strategy
Popular altcoins, for example, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and Doge, are expected to tract Bitcoin's directional bias closely. Investors should align their entry strategies in these markets with the Bitcoin breakout scenarios above.
If the Bitcoin price breaks upward from any of these three scenarios above, altcoins must respond positively to validate a sustainable crypto-wide recovery. (Good place to do entry-position at the bottom)
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical point, as it consolidates within a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart and forms a long-legged doji candle on the monthly cycle. This setup indicates that while a double-bottom pattern within the triangle provides short-term upside potential, a breakout above the previous high remains unlikely in the near term.
As a result, Bitcoin might be continued to consolidate through July, and potentially the price would be formed zigzag correction toward the $96,000 to $99,000 range or be developed into a descending triangle before attempting a breakout.
Given three scenarios, investors should remain cautious and manage risk accordingly when entering positions around current levels.
Lastly, in terms of altcoins, the strategies should closely follow Bitcoin's direction since a broader crypto market recovery would largely depend on Bitcoin breaking out of this compression zone with strength and confirmation.
